Face masks, social distancing and travel restrictions have changed our lives considerably across the world. As citzens we were overwhelmed. As scientists this novel situation triggered our curiosity. Questions came up: “What if social distancing isn’t imposed to the entire nation, but only to regional hotspots?”. “What if we revert relaxation of lockdown policies, once numbers go up again – and what happens if we don’t?” “What if the virus isn’t that infectious at all?” With help of an agent-based model, we have explored scenarios to offer strategies, how we can best live with Corona until (hopefully) a vaccine will be available: the effect of contact tracing and regional interventions are viewed with respect to the extreme scenarios of continued lockdown versus back to normality.
This publication targets at policy makers but also at the general public. The paper was written around Easter, but the questions are still relevant. Although meanwhile we have learned a lot about the virus itself, policy makers are more challenged than ever. The enormous impact of lockdown measures on the economic and social lives blurrs what has been a widely accepted agreement in our societies.
The paper “COVID-19 Intervention Scenarios for a Long-term Disease Management” is published in open access format: https://www.ijhpm.com/article_3866.html